Re: [bitfolk] predicted network usage / "Predicted to exceed…

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Author: Andy Smith
Date:  
To: users
Subject: Re: [bitfolk] predicted network usage / "Predicted to exceed transfer quota"

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Hi Conrad,

On Wed, Feb 23, 2022 at 08:40:12AM +0000, Conrad Wood wrote:
> rather than email I'd like an API, so that I can route it to
> my alerting system.


You have made this request before, about two years ago, so it's
worth reading that thread as well:

    https://lists.bitfolk.com/lurker/message/20200214.095931.838386c0.en.html


I think it's probably also worth looking at what say Linode offers
here:

    https://www.linode.com/docs/api/linode-instances/#network-transfer-view


which looks to be very similar to what you are asking for.

The chief problem here is that I don't know how to make an API
server, which is still the same problem as 2 years ago.

Obviously I can learn, and I appreciate that the information you
request is simple and that you'll probably be quite tolerant of any
changes that needed to happen to the API, but it's still far outside
my experience.

The motivation to do this work is quite low as:

- I think this particular thing is a very niche requirement (people
hardly ever approach their data transfer quotas) so this benefits
very few customers.

- The best source of this data is from within your own VMs.

- The rare times that people do go over their quota they tend to
focus on BitFolk's measurements of this instead of looking into
the behaviour of their own VM. I feel like anything I implement is
just going to be a further distraction from the customer's own
responsibilities.

> Having the information in my alerting system means I can route them so
> that they remind me/trigger me again etc.


I encourage customers with their own monitoring to entirely switch
off BitFolk's data transfer monitoring, monitor it themselves and
put it in their alerting system. A simple rolling 30 day count of
bytes transferred shouldn't be that difficult.

> My questions are:
>
> 1. How often is that prediction calculated?


The emailed warnings are from data calculated every 15 minutes.

During the first 15 days of the time period under consideration, the
prediction is the sum of the last 30 days.

In the last 15 days of the time period the prediction is a simple
average over days so far multiplied by 30 days, e.g. if you're 20
days in then the prediction for this 30 day period is the sum of the
last 20 days divided by 20 multiplied by 30.

The figures on the panel regarding count of octets in/out are updated
every 5 minutes. The predicted values there are always just the
current period's figures averaged and then multiplied, e.g. if
you're currently 20 days in then it will be the sum for the last 20
days divided by 20 multiplied by 30.

So, if you are wondering how come a warning can be sent very quickly
after a new data transfer period begins, it is because for the first
15 days of that period the predicted total comes from the sum of the
previous period. Like if you are one day in then the prediction is
the sum of all bytes transferred today and for 29 days before it.

> 2. Is there an API I could query which gives me the data from the
> email?


No, and to get one will require a lot of work for me. Which I
appreciate doesn't seem like much work to people who know about
these things and perhaps do them for a living, but it is for me.

Is there a problem here where you suspect that BitFolk's figures do
not match with your own? If so, there is of course always the
potential for a mistake, so we could talk about that in a support
ticket.

BitFolk's figures should be a little bit less than your own packet
counters as we disregard traffic to other parts of BitFolk. It would
be unexpected for BitFolk's figures to indicate MORE data
transferred than your own figures.

As a first step it would be best to look at the total count of bytes
transferred between the two date points to see if they generally
match up.

Or is it that if you are warned by BitFolk that you are predicted to
exceed your quota, you want to be able to assure yourself what the
scale of that will be, or if you have solved the issue and so on?

Again I would much rather you do that using your own figures. A
simple count of bytes transferred from a given start time should
generally match (bearing in mind BitFolk's under counting as
mentioned above) and should be able to give you some idea.

I can understand how if you're near the quota, have been warned that
you're over the quota or have actually gone over the quota, that you
might want a more real-time insight into what BitFolk considers the
figures to be, without reloading the panel web page or waiting for
an email about it.

I am interested in what other customers think. Though as most people
never get anywhere near their data transfer quota, before responding
please do try to put yourselves in the position of someone who has
just received the automated email that says they've gone over quota
and every GB transferred is now costing them £0.06+VAT. Does the
current facility of the panel web page, Grafana site and emailed
notifications cut it then?

Cheers,
Andy

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